Modesto, CA Airbnb Market Data, Statistics, and Occupancy Rates

Modesto Short-Term Rental Market Overview

Modesto's short-term rental market sits at a crossroads of growing investor interest and modest yield metrics, with 126 active Airbnb listings generating an average annual revenue of $19,047. While the market's ADR of $152 is well below California's $551 state average, the 80% year-over-year growth in active listings signals rising demand and operator confidence. Investors willing to target larger properties—particularly 4-bedroom units—can unlock meaningfully higher returns, though the market's 33% average occupancy rate calls for careful deal selection and pricing strategy.

Key Market Statistics

According to Rabbu market data, the Modesto short-term rental market shows:

Data sources: Rabbu proprietary analytics as of Apr, 27 2026 and Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) as of Mar, 17 2026.

Why Investors Consider Modesto

Modesto appeals to investors seeking California exposure at a more affordable entry point, though tighter competition and below-average occupancy require sharper deal sourcing.

Expert Market Assessment

"Modesto presents a moderate opportunity for STR investors—the market's ROI score of 50 out of 100 reflects a competitive landscape where strong deals are available but require selectivity. Revenue peaks in June at nearly $2,000 per month before tapering through fall and winter, creating a pronounced seasonal curve that favors active pricing management. The below-average revenue-to-price ratio and occupancy stability mean cash flow won't come on autopilot; however, the above-average growth trend and the clear outperformance of 4-bedroom properties suggest a viable path for investors who target the right property configuration."

— Rabbu Market Analysis Team

Key Airbnb Metrics & Trends in Modesto

Average revenue by month in Modesto

Revenue in Modesto follows a clear summer-weighted pattern, peaking at $1,957 in June and bottoming out at $1,322 in April—a roughly 48% spread that underscores the importance of dynamic pricing. October provides a notable secondary bump at $1,722, suggesting fall weekend travel or event-driven demand that savvy operators can capitalize on.

Active Airbnb listings by property size in Modesto

One-bedroom units dominate Modesto's supply with 60 of the 126 active listings (nearly half the market), while 2- and 3-bedroom properties each contribute 20 listings. The relative scarcity of 4-bedroom (14) and 5-bedroom (5) homes—combined with their superior revenue metrics—signals a potential supply gap that investors could target.

Average daily rate (ADR) by property size in Modesto

ADR scales steeply with size in Modesto, climbing from $82 for 1-bedroom units to $333 for 5-bedroom properties—a 4x premium. The jump from 2-bedrooms ($135) to 3-bedrooms ($203) is particularly notable, suggesting a strong price-per-bedroom premium kicks in once properties can accommodate families or groups.

Average RevPAN by property size in Modesto

RevPAN tells a compelling story for larger properties: 4-bedroom listings deliver $113 per available night and 5-bedrooms reach $191, compared to just $25 for 1-bedroom units. This dramatic gap means that even with higher acquisition costs, larger homes extract far more revenue from each night of availability.

Average occupancy rates by property size in Modesto

Five-bedroom properties lead occupancy at 57%, followed by 4-bedrooms at 43%, while studios and 1-bedrooms sit at 22% and 31% respectively. The pattern is clear: bigger homes stay fuller in Modesto, offering more predictable cash flow and reducing the risk of extended vacancies.

Average monthly revenue by property size in Modesto

Four-bedroom properties are the top monthly earners at $3,213, outpacing 3-bedrooms ($2,314) by nearly 39% and dwarfing 1-bedroom revenue of just $953. Interestingly, 5-bedroom listings average $2,480 monthly—less than 4-bedrooms—which may reflect pricing challenges or a smaller, less optimized sample.

Average annual revenue by property size in Modesto

On an annual basis, 4-bedroom properties generate the highest revenue at $38,557, more than triple what 1-bedroom units bring in ($11,438). Three-bedroom homes at $27,773 offer a solid middle ground, and investors weighing acquisition cost against return potential should note the significant revenue jump between 2-bedroom ($15,998) and 3-bedroom configurations.

Most common amenities for Airbnb listings in Modesto

Parking and kitchen access are virtually table stakes at 94% prevalence each, followed by laundry (washer 79%, dryer 75%) and self check-in at 76%. The high workspace adoption (71%) and backyard prevalence (67%) suggest Modesto's guest base values practical, home-like amenities—investors who include these essentials are matching market expectations rather than gaining a competitive edge.

Understanding Modesto's ROI Score: 50/100

Rabbu's ROI Score is a proprietary metric that evaluates short-term rental investment potential based on multiple factors.

How the ROI Score is Calculated

What This Means for Investors

Modesto's ROI score of 50 out of 100 places it in the "Competitive Opportunity" band, meaning deals are available but not abundant—investors need to be selective. The score reflects below-average marks on revenue-to-price ratio, occupancy stability, and supply/demand balance, offset partially by an above-average market growth trend that signals expanding demand. Pairing this data with thorough local regulatory research and a focus on higher-performing property sizes (particularly 4-bedroom homes) will give investors the clearest picture of where returns can justify the entry price.

Short-Term Rental Regulations in Modesto

Understanding local STR regulations is essential before investing in Modesto. Here's the current regulatory landscape:

Permit Requirements

Short-term rental operators in Modesto, California may be required to obtain a business license or STR permit before listing their property. Investors should verify current registration and permitting requirements directly with the City of Modesto's planning or finance department.

Key Restrictions

Common restrictions for STR hosts in California cities include occupancy limits, minimum stay requirements, noise ordinances, and parking mandates. HOA rules may impose additional limitations, and some jurisdictions cap the total number of active STR permits, so confirming local rules before purchasing is essential.

Tax Obligations

Operators in California are generally subject to transient occupancy taxes and may also owe state and local sales taxes on short-term stays. Platforms like Airbnb often collect and remit these taxes on behalf of hosts, but investors should confirm their obligations with Modesto's tax authority.

Regulations subject to change. Always verify with local authorities before purchasing. A Rabbu partner agent specializing in Modesto can provide current regulatory guidance.

Future Outlook & Long-Term Forecast

"The rapid 80% listing growth over the past year suggests Modesto is attracting new STR supply, which may temper occupancy gains in the near term unless demand keeps pace. Seasonal patterns point to June as the revenue peak at $1,957 per month, with softer months like April dipping to $1,322—investors should anticipate occupancy hovering around 30–36% over the next 12–18 months. An above-average market growth trend could support a modest 2–4% ADR increase if new supply stabilizes, but returns will likely remain most competitive for operators who optimize pricing during the May-through-August corridor."

— Rabbu Market Analysis Team

Frequently asked questions about Airbnb in Modesto, CA

What is the average Airbnb occupancy rate in Modesto?

The average occupancy rate for Airbnb listings in Modesto is currently 33%, which sits below the California state average of 43%. Occupancy varies significantly by property size—5-bedroom listings achieve 57% occupancy, while studios trail at just 22%. Investors targeting larger properties can expect more consistent booking activity throughout the year.

How much do Airbnb hosts make in Modesto?

On average, Airbnb hosts in Modesto earn approximately $1,587 per month or $19,047 per year based on trailing 12-month performance data. Earnings vary widely by property size: 4-bedroom properties lead with an average of $3,213 per month ($38,557 annually), while 1-bedroom units average just $953 per month. Revenue also fluctuates seasonally, peaking in June at around $1,957 per month.

Is Modesto a good market for Airbnb investment?

Modesto scores 50 out of 100 on Rabbu's ROI Score, placing it in the "Competitive Opportunity" category. The market shows above-average growth trends and strong listing expansion (80% year-over-year), but below-average occupancy stability and revenue-to-price ratios mean investors need to be strategic about property selection. Larger properties, especially 4-bedroom homes, offer the strongest return potential, and operators who actively manage pricing around seasonal demand peaks can improve their outcomes.

What is the average daily rate (ADR) for Airbnb in Modesto?

The current average daily rate for Airbnb listings in Modesto is $152, compared to California's state average of $551. ADR scales significantly with property size: studios average $98 per night, while 5-bedroom properties command $333. This pricing structure means investors in larger homes can capture substantially higher nightly revenue, even in a market with relatively modest base rates.

Are short-term rentals legal in Modesto?

Short-term rentals are generally permitted in Modesto, California, though operators may need to secure a business license or STR permit. Local regulations can include occupancy limits, noise restrictions, and parking requirements, and HOA rules may add further constraints. Investors should consult the City of Modesto directly for the most current permitting and compliance requirements before purchasing a property.

When is peak season for Airbnb in Modesto?

Peak season for Airbnb hosts in Modesto runs from May through August, with June being the strongest month at an average revenue of $1,957. The summer months benefit from travel to nearby Central Valley attractions and Yosemite-bound tourism. The softest month is April at $1,322, representing roughly a $635 spread from peak to trough—a manageable seasonal swing for operators who plan their pricing calendar accordingly.

How many Airbnbs are there in Modesto?

As of April 2026, there are 126 active Airbnb listings in Modesto. The market has seen significant growth, with an 80% year-over-year increase in active listings. One-bedroom units dominate the supply at 60 listings, while 2- and 3-bedroom properties each account for 20 listings, and larger homes remain relatively scarce—suggesting potential opportunity in underserved size categories.

How is Airbnb revenue calculated in Modesto?

The annual and monthly revenue figures shown for Modesto are derived from the trailing 12 months of historical booking performance for active comparable Airbnb listings in the market—not a forward-looking projection. We average each comparable listing's actual revenue per available night (RevPAN) by month over the past year, remove regional outliers, and roll the remaining data up to a market-level historical average. This approach anchors the figures to what hosts have actually earned recently while naturally reflecting seasonal peaks and slower months, since each month uses its own historical performance. Individual results can vary based on property quality, pricing strategy, and operational management.

About Rabbu Market Data

Rabbu provides Airbnb and short-term rental market data and statistics across the United States. Our mission is to empower investors with accurate insights and easy-to-use tools, so they can confidently identify and act on the best opportunities in the Airbnb market.

What this data includes

• Regularly updated active Airbnb and STR listing counts for the Modesto market
• Average daily rate, occupancy, and RevPAN trends across property sizes
• Monthly and annual revenue benchmarks based on trailing 12-month booking data
• Home value estimates sourced from Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)
• Supply growth and amenity prevalence data for competitive analysis

Sources and disclaimers

Rabbu proprietary analytics as of Apr, 27 2026 and Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) as of Mar, 17 2026. Revenue projections are estimates based on comparable properties and do not guarantee future performance. Data reflects trailing 12-month averages as of April 2026; actual market conditions may shift due to regulatory changes or economic factors. Individual property results will vary based on location, condition, management quality, and pricing strategy.